BEST BETS: WEEK 2

Finnelytics
Sep 2, 2021
4 min read

WELCOME BACK COLLEGE FOOTBALL!

YTD: 0-0 (-%)

ALL-TIME 51-30 (63%)

2020 29-22 (57%)

2019 22-8 (73%)

NC STATE (-18.5) vs SOUTH FLORIDA | THURSDAY 7:30 EST | ACCN

NC State seems to be one of the least talked about teams year after year. The Wolfpack threw together another solid year in 2020 going 8-4 with 3 losses to ranked team plus a loss to Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. NC State battled a lot of attrition on defense like many teams due to Covid.

Jeff Scott started his coaching career at South Florida with a 1-8 record in 2020. The Bulls were poor on each side of the ball and many expect that to continue in year two. South Florida lost last year's starting QB, Jordan McCloud, to the transfer portal over the offseason. The Bulls are expected to start another former transfer QB in Cade Fortin, who started his college career at UNC. Fortin comes into this year with just 73 attempts under his belt over 6 games.

Defensively, South Florida did not put a scare into anyone. They gave up 34 or more points in 7 of 9 games while surrendering over 200 YPG both in the air and on the ground. On top of the poor year, the Bulls lose both starting cornerbacks and are left with an inexperienced group there who will have to deal with 6'3" WR Emeke Emezie who I expect a big game out of. NC State will look to finally see the potential of Devin Leary at quarterback come to light as well. Leary has been held back by some injuries so far in his career but the potential is there.

Overall, NC State will have a heavy talent advantage on both sides of the ball and 18.5 points will probably not be enough.

NOTRE DAME (-7.5) vs FLORIDA STATE | SUNDAY 7:30 EST | ABC

Florida State is gaining some preseason hype as always, however, 7.5 points to a 2020 playoff team (yes they lost a lot I know) might be a bit extreme. Florida State still has question marks at quarterback as Mackenzie Milton has yet to win the job and will probably split time with Jordan Travis. Without the threat of an air attack, the Seminoles could once again struggle offensively against what is still an experienced and solid Irish unit on defense. Notre Dame should be strong up front again this year and that matches up well against an FSU team that may struggle to throw again this year.

Coming off a 31-17 loss to Alabama in the playoffs last year, Notre Dame did indeed lose a lot offensively, especially along the offensive line. The Irish quickly filled one hole at G with the addition of All-American, Cain Madden, from Marshall. However, overall they will have 4 new faces within that unit. Notre Dame also took to the transfer portal to replace Ian Book at quarterback. In steps Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan. Coan does not impress many and comes across as a game manager to most, however, that is really what Notre Dame needs. Notre Dame will again look to lean on their run game and utilize one of the best young tight ends in the game, Michael Mayer.

The bottom line, odds are Florida State is still well short of Notre Dame's tier, and the offseason hype is likely the leading cause to this small 7.5 point line.

CINCINNATI (-22.5) vs MIAMI (OH) | SATURDAY 3:30 EST | ESPN+

Cincinnati is looking to become the first team outside of the Power5 to make the playoffs, and they could have the schedule strength to do it. On top of going undefeated, the Bearcats will be looking to impress every chance they get along the way and that starts opening night.

Miami (OH) should be completely outmatched on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. Cincinnati will lean on the combination of a solid defense along with consistent play from Heisman hopeful Desmond Ridder.

DUKE (-5.5) vs CHARLOTTE | FRIDAY 7:00 EST | CBSSN

Duke is probably destined for another poor year, however, even amidst their 2-9 campaign a year ago they still managed to destroy Charlotte 53-19.

Duke struggled with turnovers last year, primarily from QB Chase Brice who managed a 10/15 TD/INT ratio. Brice has since moved on to his 3rd school, now at App State. Gunnar Holmberg will now lead the Blue Devils in 2021. They will again rely heavily on their run game lead by Mataeo Durant, one of the best running backs in the ACC. Charlotte allowed over 200 YPG on the ground last year at a 5.9 YPC clip. They lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers from a year ago and only return 1 starter on their DL from a year ago. However, they did manage to add 2 Power5 transfers along the line that should immediately help out that unit.

Offensively, Charlotte is also a run-heavy team and may find success against Duke as well. Duke also gave up over 200 YPG on the ground a year ago.