BEST BETS: WEEK 4

Best Bets started off with a perfect 3-0 performance last week improving the career total to 25-8 (76%).

TOP PLAY: PITTSBURGH (-21.5) vs Syracuse

Syracuse flat out did not look good at all last week against UNC, especially on offense. Cuse really struggled to keep QB, Tommy Devito upright and he was pressured all day. That came against a defensive front that should be nowhere near as talented as the Panthers. Pitt's defense should be one of the best in the nation, particularly upfront even with the loss of Twyman. Pitt was without Rashad Weaver and Keyshon Camp a week ago due to COVID, but they are expected to play Saturday. Syracuse should really struggle on this side of the ball as they did last week. Pittsburgh's defensive line should absolutely wreak havoc all day, giving great opportunities for big plays out of what could be the best safety duo in the nation in Damar Hamlin and Paris Ford.

The Pitt offense is the only concerning part of a large line such as 21.5 points. They will hopefully have their leading WR, Taysir Mack, back in action this week. Syracuse did a decent job on defense for the majority of the UNC game since it was 10-6 heading into the 4th, but UNC was moving the ball well. A couple of bad turnovers by Sam Howell really made things look much better for Cuse than it really was. Even with the score the way it was headed into the 4th Cuse still managed to give up over 460 yards on the day. Their defense is average at the end of the day. Pitt will probably need at least 30 points out of their offense to get the job done.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-23) vs Tulsa

Oklahoma State is coming into 2020 with a lot of hype, and it may be well deserved. The Cowboys return a ton of production both on offense and defense, especially after the decision from star running back Chuba Hubbard to return for another year.

Last year this matchup was actually played at Tulsa, making it probably the most anticipated game played at Tulsa in the last decade I assume without actually looking. Oklahoma State still managed to win 40-21 in a game where they were favored by just 14 points. The offense put up over 500 yards including over 350 on the ground! Tulsa loses 3 of their top 5 tacklers from a defense that already gave up over 30 PPG in 2019. Oklahoma State has had some movement along the offensive line with transfers which is a little concerning. However, the granted waiver of WVU transfer guard, Josh Sills, should be a huge addition. The Cowboys offense should have no issues this Saturday.

The Oklahoma State defense is a unit that very often gets overlooked. The unit returns 10 starters this year, losing just a CB in AJ Green. Their defense is held together by 2 very solid linebackers and also another elite safety duo in Tre Sterling and Kolby Harvey-Peel. Tulsa's offense should be a solid test for the Cowboys as they return a solid 9 starters from a year ago. If OKST manages to hold them below 20 points they should cover with ease.

With a pretty limited slate and 2 other games I was eyeing up being postponed (UNC and Baylor) I will stop here for the Best Bets this week.

LOW CONFIDENCE BONUS BETS

YTD: 2-0 (100%)

LOUISIANA TECH (+5) vs Southern Mississippi

Louisiana Tech is only returning 2 starters on defense which is probably the main reason this line is where it is. However, the Bulldogs were 10-3 last year and won this matchup by 15 points. On top of that Southern Miss looked horrendous last week. Good opportunity for a little money line sprinkle.

GEORGIA TECH (+7.5) vs Central Florida (Model Disagrees)

The Jackets shocked the world by taking down Florida State a week ago lead by true freshman Jeff Sims. Tech managed to throw for almost 300 yards against a much fiercer defense then what they will face this Saturday. Head coach Geoff Collins seems to have the turnaround going great and I would not be shocked if the Jackets gave us an encore this weekend.

Central Florida does return a lot on both sides of the ball and they should be a solid team once again. They were hit with some opt-outs a couple of weeks ago including starting cornerback Tay Gowan.