BEST BETS: WEEK 5

Finnelytics Best Bets went 0-2 last week. YTD: 3-2 (60%) All-Time 25-10 (71%)

TOP PLAY: TEXAS (-18.5) vs Texas Tech

Texas was impressive enough against a non-impressive opponent in UTEP a couple of weeks ago. The Longhorns offense, lead by Sam Ehlinger, should have a field day once again this week vs Texas Tech. This pick is more so based on Texas Tech's performance against FCS Houston Baptist. The Raiders beat HBU by just 2 points while giving up over 570 yards through the air. An absolutely atrocious day defensively for Texas Tech and there is no reason why the Longhorns won't exploit them even worse. Texas will once again be out their slot receiver, Jake Smith.

FLORIDA (-13.5) vs Ole Miss

Florida has received plenty of preseason hype and it may be well-deserved. They are one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, with talent at every position. Kyle Trask was one of the bigger surprises of 2019 after Felipe Franks went down early. Their offense took off and had some of the best numbers in the nation. They did lose a couple of key receivers but they still return plenty of experience there and also return Kyle Pitts, who could be the top TE in the nation. Also, a name to keep an eye on is former #1 WR recruit Justin Shorter. Shorter transferred into Florida from Penn State this offseason and is currently listed as a backup to Jacob Copeland.

Ole Miss defensively has struggled in the past and only return 5 starters from a year ago. Their secondary is definitely an area of concern, however did get a boost with the approval of Minnesota transfer Keidron Smith.

Defensively, Florida is pretty much always solid. This year should be no different. The defensive line is littered with elite talent, and now add former 5star recruit Brenton Cox from Georgia. Their defense is solid and experienced at every level.

It appears Lane Kiffin has decided to go with the more natural QB with the announcement of Matt Corral as the starter. Last year Plumlee started for Ole Miss the majority of the year, and the passing game struggled. Corral is much more of a passer, which should give Ole Miss a much more balanced attack. The question remains how the Ole Miss offensive line will hold up.

SYRACUSE (+7.5) vs Georgia Tech

Syracuse has been a team many have picked on early on this season including myself. However, the unit that has stood out to me is their defense. Even with the shocking win week 1 against the Noles, the Georgia Tech offense really has not been putting up big numbers. They managed to accumulate close to 500 yards against UCF, but 5 turnovers limited them to just 21 points. A younger team, lead by a true freshman QB and now RB as well with Jordan Mason out this week can lead to more mistakes like that. Syracuse has a very aggressive secondary by lead potential All-American Andre Cisco.

Offensively, Syracuse has been putrid. This unit is for sure the most concerning part of this pick. However, based on the first two weeks of Georgia Tech's defense, this should be Syracuse's best shot a good day so far. Georgia Tech was absolutely lit up by UCF a week ago, surrendering almost 700 yards. Cuse offense was dominated as expected by Pittsburgh, but Pitt should be one of the best defenses in the nation.

LOW CONFIDENCE BONUS BETS

YTD: 3-1 (75%)

TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs South Carolina (Model Disagrees)

Whether Cade Mays plays or not, this Tennessee offensive line should be the best unit on the field. Littered with 5stars, this should be one of the most anticipated offensive lines nationally and the unit really started to play well late last year. Defensively, Tennessee also turns things on towards the end of last year and returns plenty of talent and experience led by Sophomore Henry To'o To'o at linebacker.

South Carolina is trending towards the bottom of the barrel SEC team. Their offense will presumably run into a lot of trouble this year. Colorado State transfer, Collin Hill, was named the starter earlier this week along with the news of Dakereon Joyner being listed as a starting WR. Joyner was once a highly recruited QB.

The under may also be a very good play as well.

ARMY (+13.5) vs Cincinnati

The Army defense continues to impress. Combine that with Cincinnati somewhat lackluster performance a week ago against a weak opponent and the triple option game, game controlling, approach from the Black Knights and a two-touchdown line just seems tough to pass up.

BAYLOR (-17.5) vs Kansas

Kansas looked horrendous in their upset loss against Coastal Carolina. Baylor lost a ton defensively, however new head coach, Dave Aranda, is a very defensive-minded head coach which should help alleviate some of that pain. Having Charlier Brewer back at QB will also give Baylor a nice boost of confidence headed into the 2020 campaign.

WEST VIRGINIA (+6.5) vs Oklahoma State

If Spencer Sanders does play this week I would not play this game. However, without Sanders, Oklahoma State looked absolutely lost. Sure they have some time to prepare for life without him, however, without his dynamic playmaking ability, the offensive line issues were really highlighted. Their defense did play great against Tulsa, and the under may be another good play if Sanders can not go.