BEST BETS: WEEK 3

Finnelytics Best Bets finished up 2019 with a 22-8 record (73%). With Power5 teams finally starting to play the first edition of Best Bets has arrived.

TOP PLAY: LOUISVILLE (-11.5) vs Western Kentucky

Lousiville had a tremendous turnaround in year one under Scott Satterfield, especially on offense. The trio of Cunningham, Hawkins, and Atwell turned a lot of heads around the CFB world and that should continue into 2020. Western Kentucky does however boast a very solid defense. The Hilltoppers were particularly stout against the pass a year ago, however, they do replace both corners in 2020. Louisville should have the talent and weapons on offense to get the job done. The one thing to note and keep an eye on is the loss of Mekii Becton to the NFL and how he is replaced as the anchor of that offensive line.

The Hilltoppers may be solid on the defense, but the offense really let them down a year ago. Both rushing and passing ratings finished below 60 on the year. They do bring in Maryland QB transfer, Tyrrell Pigrome. Pigrome is a great athlete, however, really struggled through the air in his limited opportunities with the Terps. The Cardinals were not great on D a year ago, but return a ton of experience. 8 of their top 10 tacklers return, including the entire linebacker unit. I expect to see a much-improved performance on the defensive side this year.

ARMY (-19) vs UL-Monroe

I typically stay away from including non-Power5 games in the Best Bets category, but there's just isn't much more I confidently like outside of Lousiville. With that said Army came out very strong a week ago and their matchup this week is unbelievable. Keep in mind how teams defend the option is always tough to predict but UL-Monroe is so dreadful against the run I am not sure it will matter. The Warhawks managed to give up 5.7 YPC a year ago en route to 253 yards per game. Army also has a game under their belt, which sometimes will give the opponent an advantage since they have a game of tape to watch, but it is not like Army is hiding anything so that should be a non-issue.

UL_Monroe was decent offensively last year, but they lost a lot starting with a 4-year starter and quite possibly the best QB in program history, Caleb Evans. Evans was essentially the whole offense. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards which got him to almost 10k yards in his career, ranking him 2nd all-time at ULM. He also added 950 yards on the ground and accounted for over 30 touchdowns. Not only will the Warhawks have to replace Evans, but they must also replace their leading receiver and 3 of 5 starting offensive lineman. The offense should take drastic steps backward this year and the Army defense looked solid as they shutout a solid Middle Tennessee St. team a week ago.

Duke vs Notre Dame UNDER (54.0)

The last Best Bet of the week will be the Duke/Notre Dame under 54 points. This game also includes what could be the most intriguing matchups of the whole week. The combo of Dimukeje and Rumph on the ends for Duke will have their toughest matchup of the year as they go against two of the best offensive tackles in the nation. The Notre Dame offensive line is definitely the best unit in the game and they should control the game for the most part. The lack of proven skill position players for the Irish will likely mean a heavy dosage on the ground, hopefully meaning some long drives and not many explosive plays.

Chase Brice will get his first start as a Blue Devil as he transferred in from Clemson this offseason. Duke was terrible through the air in 2019 with a measly 5.7 YPA, which ranked pretty close to dead last in the nation. Notre Dame's defense should be strong once again. Their secondary is very sound, they have one of the nation's best linebackers, and their DL is also a veteran, proven group.

The combination of a run-heavy attack for the Irish and what could be a dominant night out of their defense points to a low scoring affair.

There are also two more games that I personally like, but Finnelytics models do not agree with so I will not include them in my Best Bets.

PITTSBURGH (-27.5) vs Austin Peay

The Panthers should be a sleeper team in the ACC. Their defense should once again be one of the best in the nation, and after seeing Austin Peay's performance vs Central Arkansas a couple of weeks ago I am not really sure how they are going to score. If Pitt can manage to get to 35-40 points they should cover with ease.

NORTH CAROLINA (-23) vs Syracuse

North Carolina should have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. They return an insane amount of production at the skill positions. Michael Carter and Javonte Williams both return and the combo was just 77 yards away from both notching 1000 on the year. Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome both return as 1,000 yard receivers from a year ago. All lead by Sam Howell who broke all sorts of ACC freshman records.

Their defense was not great last year, however, they return a lot there as well. Their secondary should be pretty good and they add a highly recruited transfer from Clemson in Kyler McMichael as well. The linebackers are one of the top units in the conference, leaving just their defensive line which will need to improve from last year. Fortunately, this game will feature the Syracuse offensive line which has been dreadful. Tommy Devito was constantly running for his life last year and there is really no fix in sight as their opening depth chart even featured Chris Elmore, a converted TE/FB, as the starting left guard. Syracuse should struggle to move the ball, combine that with UNC's dynamic offense and 23 points should not be enough.