WEEK 12 CFB FINNsider PICKS
- Finnelytics
- Nov 8, 2019
- 4 min read
Updated: Nov 12, 2019
Year to Date: 7-3 (70%)
Last Week: 0-0
WIN
Notre Dame is coming off 3 lackluster games, each game they were nowhere near covering the vegas spread. Lack of motivation may be the driving force behind those performances, in particular, last week against VT. Notre Dame is out of the playoff discussion now after their loss to Michigan, which could make it tough to find the needed motivation. With all that said Notre Dame is flat out the better team. The most important part of the game for Notre Dame to cover is when their defense is on the field. Notre Dame is led by their defense and they have played great other than the thumping by Michigan. Duke is a rather rush heavy team and they struggle to find the explosive plays. Duke should be outmatched talent-wise on that side of the ball and I would be shocked if they reach 20 points.
Offensively for Notre Dame, as long as Ian Book takes care of the ball they have the talent to move the ball against Duke.
Finnelytics Prediction
Notre Dame 30 @ Duke 17
WIN
Notre Dame may struggle to find motivation, however, that should be no issue is this game for Georgia. The Dawgs have already slipped up once against South Carolina however the playoff committee ranked them as the best 1-loss team and Georgia still controls their own destiny. However, they know they must win out to have any chance at the playoffs.
Missouri started off 5-1 and was being labeled as the surprise SEC team of the year. Since then they have lost 2 straight to bottom-dwelling SEC teams and they have looked terrible doing it. Their offense has completely sputtered and Kelly Bryant suffered a hamstring injury last game against Kentucky. He had the bye week to heal up but still is not 100% but will probably play. While Missouri's offense has been brutal the past two games, their defense has also surrendered an average of 225 yards on the ground in those games. Georgia should be able to run rampant and should have no problem racking up points. Everything seems to favor Georgia in this game, the game is between the hedges and their whole season is on the line.
Finnelytics Prediction
Missouri 13 @ Georgia 34
WIN
Tennessee has been playing great as of late, covering the spread in their last four games including two upset wins against South Carolina and Mississippi State. In particular, their defense has been spectacular even against the Crimson Tide. Their rush defense to be specific has been really ramped up ever since they gave up almost 250 yards against Georgia which actually is not all that bad against the Dawgs. Who plays quarterback for Kentucky is still up in the air, but if it is Lynn Bowden then they become a very one-dimensional team, yet to surpass 100 yards through the air with him playing QB. Sawyer Smith is progressing back from his injury and "has shown improved arm strength" during practice over the bye week. Smith would give the Wildcats a much more balanced attack on offense, but I would expect some rust as well.
Kentucky's defense continues to play consistently well, I expect a tight low scoring game that hopefully favors the hot Tennessee team.
Finnelytics Prediction
Tennessee 23 @ Kentucky 17
WIN
New Mexico State is just about the worst FBS team in the nation. They rank 171st in the Finnelytics Power Rankings, keep in mind there are only 130 FBS teams. They are 0-8 and the only teams they have played close were Liberty and New Mexico. In the first game of the year they were destroyed by Washington State 58-7, the Cougars actually rank 50th in the FPR putting them in the same level as Ole Miss.
Mississippi is an excellent team on the ground matching up perfectly with a NMSU team that gives up a terrible 265 yards on the ground a game. 28.5 is a lot of points but Ole Miss should have absolutely no trouble scoring, as long as their defense shows up the cover should be no issue.
Finnelytics Prediction
New Mexico State 14 @ Ole Miss 42
WIN
Northwestern continues to one of the worst offensive attacks in the nation, 10th worst in the FBS to be exact according to Finnelytics rankings. They have absolutely no passing game to speak of, yet to eclipse 200 yards in a game this year. Purdue does not bring a formidable defense to the table, however, they have improved as of late holding each of their last 5 opponents under 30 points which is good for Purdue.
Offensively Purdue definitely misses explosive WR Rondale Moore. They may struggle to score which could make this a tight low scoring affair making the 2.5 very important.
Finnelytics Prediction
Purdue 17 @ Northwestern 17
Week 11: 0-0
Week 10: 2-2
Week 9: 5-1
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