WEEK 15 CFB FINNsider PICKS

Finnelytics
Nov 27, 2019
5 min read

Updated: Mar 5, 2020

Year to Date: 20-5 (80%)

Last Week: 3-2

North Carolina State is banged up beyond belief, in particular, their defensive backfield. It has essentially been a lost season for Wolfpack, they have lost five straight by a combined 116 points and failing to cover in every game. Overall they just are not really in a position to compete with all the injuries that have amassed.

Conversely, the Tar Heels may be 4-7 as well but they have been much more competitive in those seven losses. Every loss has been a one-possession game. True freshman Sam Howell has been second-best QB in the league behind Trevor Lawerence and has been excellent all year. UNC should not have any issues on the offensive side of the ball as NC State has not provided any resistance against a team with a pulse on offense. This game will all depend on how North Carolina plays on defense. They have been rather inconsistent all year, and have not been playing their best defense over the past month. Take care of the ball and limit NC State on defense and the cover should be a non-issue.

Hopefully, there is also some extra motivation for the Tar Heels as they are one win away from a bowl game.

Clemson may be one of the least talked about dominant team in a long time. The narrative has all been about who they are playing instead of how they are playing. Since their poor game against UNC, the Tigers have just been absolutely demolishing teams with an average score of about 52-10. Their defense has been out this world even before the UNC game, giving up over 200 yards passing just once all year (Week 3 vs Texas A&M) All this with their subs playing just about every 4th quarter if not 3rd quarter.

A four-touchdown spread can be a bold play in rivalry week as Clemson would have covered four touchdowns just once in last the five years against South Carolina, however, I just do not think South Carolina is in a good place right now as a program on and off the field. Jake Bentley was able to throw all over Clemson last year, he will not be playing in this game as he has been out all year with a fractured foot. They have been decimated at WR, even star Bryan Edwards missed the game against TAMU, and is still questionable for Saturday. Overall if South Carolina fails to score more than 10 points, it is very hard to imagine a scenario where Clemson does not cover.

Missouri is a team I have picked on a couple times this year, however all of those games were against teams with solid run defenses. It seems that it has been the kryptonite of Missouri this year. The Missouri offense has really taken a turn for the worse ever since their game against Vanderbilt. They have now lost five straight games, all of which their offense did not eclipse a 60 GMSC, however, on the bright side four of the games have come against very solid rush defenses. Arkansas is dreadful, in particular they surrender 230 yards rushing on average. This matchup is something Missouri has not seen in over a month and hopefully can take advantage on the ground, which in turn should open up the air game. Prior to their five-game skid, this Missouri offense was averaging 38 PPG. Most of those games came against much better teams than Arkansas as well. Their offense should be back to that level given this matchup.

Missouri's defense has been steady all year. An above-average unit that should have no issue holding this Arkansas offense to 20 or fewer points.

Unfortunately, the news broke Tuesday night that Missouri will not be allowed to play in a bowl game this year, so that may throw a wrench in things with Missouri having nothing to play for anymore and their season is essentially over. Hopefully, the talent can still take over and the Tigers seniors, Kelly Bryant in particular, have a great last game.

TCU is another team who is one win away from a bowl game. They are also another team that has lost numerous one-possession games, every loss with the exception of Iowa State has been by seven points or less. Their defense is once again one of the best in the conference, especially defending the pass which matches up great against a team like West Virginia. West Virginia will air it out just like many BIG12 teams, however, they do not do it anywhere near as well. Their offense has failed to score 20 points in six of their 11 games this year, which is pretty miserable in a conference like the BIG12. With a bowl game birth on the table look for TCU's defense to play some inspired ball, which will hopefully hold WVU under 20 points for the 7th time this year.

Arizona State played spoiler to one of my picks last week as they beat Oregon outright. Their offense looked great, finishing with over 400 yards passing and 500 total yards against a defense that was looked upon as one of better units in the nation. After seeing what they did to Oregon's defense last week, one can only imagine what they can put up against a terrible Arizona defense. Arizona has lost six straight games, failing to cover in each of them, while giving up an average of 43 points. Khalil Tate has had another disappointing year, to the extent to where Sumlin elected to start freshman Grant Gunnell last week against Utah, not to mention that was also senior night. Gunnell also provided little to no offense and Tate came in off the bench to do much of the same. The teams seems to be a mess, Sumlin is presumably on the hot seat, previous Heisman hopefully Senior QB did not even start on senior night, their defense can't stop anyone. Other than this being a rivalry game there is no reason why it should not be a blowout.

BONUS STUFFING

Good game to sprinkle some ML action on as Louisville looks to continue their already tremendous turnaround season. Their ability to stop the run, however, turned me off of this game.

Another solid ML option as Illinois plays a lot of close games, does not kill you offensively and their defense may actually give Northwestern a fighting chance to score.

Notre Dame is flat-out more talented and Stanford is banged up all over the place. However, 16.5 points were just too much for me in this rivalry game that is always played close and somewhat dominated by Stanford recently.