WEEK 10 CFB FINNsider PICKS

Last Week: 5-1

OHIO STATE (-28.5) @ Northwestern - (52-3) WIN

MIAMI (-18) vs Georgia Tech - (28-21) LOSS

FLORIDA (-6) @ South Carolina - (38-27) WIN

USC (-9.5) vs Arizona - (41-14) WIN

PITTSBURGH (-3) @ Syracuse - (27-20) WIN

MINNESOTA (-28.5) @ Rutgers - (42-7) WIN

California @ Utah UNDER 36.5 WIN

36.5 is a very low number to take the under on but all signs are still pointing towards the game headed that way. Since Cal lost Chase Garbers during the Arizona State game their offense has been dreadful. They have yet to eclipse 200 yards passing since Garbers went down and their run game has really seen the side effects as well. In those last 3 games (Arizona St., Oregon & Oregon St.), the Bears have only averaged about 260 total yards. ASU & ORE are of course no slouches on defense but it is not like it will get any easier come Saturday vs Utah's dominant defense. Just last week vs Arizona St. was the first game Utah gave up over 100 rushing yards, coming into that game averaging just 52 YPG. Their front 7 is dominant enough to be confident to stop the Bears rush game without stacking the box, therefore making it very difficult for an already terrible Cal passing attack. It should be tough for Cal to get over 10 points.

The Utes offense is lead by their dynamic running back Zack Moss and quarterback Tyler Huntley, however Huntley was injured last week and, as of now, will play Saturday but will not be 100% making this under play even more intriguing. Other than a 52 point outburst vs Oregon St., Utah has not really put up any impressive numbers on offense this season, especially considered who they have played. Cal's defense is phenomenal and boasts one of the best secondaries in the country, and the defense is anchored by Evan Weaver who may be the best tackler in the nation.

Finnelytics Prediction

Cal 7 @ Utah 24

Final Result

Cal 0 @ Utah 35

IOWA STATE (-10.5) vs Oklahoma State LOSS

Brocktober continues to roll on as Brock Purdy has yet to lose in October as a Cyclone. This Iowa State team has been one of the most consistent performing teams in the country this year with 6/7 of their GameScores landing within a 71-79 range. The 7th was a tremendous 86 from their 25 point thumping of TCU. Oklahoma St. continues to struggle on defense especially the last 2 games as they gave up over 1100 yards while surrendering 45 points in each.

Iowa St boasts a veteran loaded defense that has yet to give up more than 24 points in a game this year, an impressive statement for a BIG12 defense. Oklahoma relies heavily on their running game as they should with star running back Chuba Hubbard in addition to having a true freshman at the helm. Iowa St. should continue to roll on at home Saturday and finish October strong.

Finnelytics Prediction

Oklahoma State 23 @ Iowa State 38

Final Result

Oklahoma State 34 @ Iowa State 27

TCU (+1) vs Texas WIN

The Longhorns have just been absolutely decimated by injuries this year, especially on the defensive side and it has been very noticeable. A week from giving up 48 points in an almost disaster loss to Kansas, this Texas defense has been nothing short of bad. TCU's offense is nothing to get excited about but they have managed to put up plenty of points when they play lower end defenses. Texas may have the ability to make this game a shootout, however, TCU definitely has the better defense. TCU will have the home crowd behind them along with busting out some alternate uniforms for the big game.

Finnelytics Prediction

Texas 27 @ TCU 34

Final Result

Texas 27 @ TCU 37

ARIZONA STATE (-3.5) @ UCLA LOSS

Arizona State's offense lead by freshman QB Jayden Daniels was flat out overmatched last week vs Utah's excellent defense last week. UCLA presents a nice sigh of relief as their defense has been terrible all year. Arizona St. has had no issue putting up plenty of yards this year when it plays a defense similar to the caliber of UCLA's. Using Washington State and Colorado for example; the Sun Devils scored over 30 points while passing for over 300 yards in both games. I expect some of the same numbers on Saturday.

Defensively Arizona State has played very well all year. Their pass defense can get a bit leaky at times but UCLA is a more run-heavy team so hopefully that does not become an issue. UCLA's offense seems to be gaining a little bit of momentum as of late as they have put up over 440 yards in each of their last four games while averaging over 37 PPG. The question is, is UCLA's offense getting better or is it just a factor of the caliber of defenses they are playing. The last four games have come against Washington State (70 DEF), Arizona (66 DEF), Oregon State (65 DEF), and Stanford (77 DEF). All four of those teams rank in the bottom half of the PAC12's defensive ratings. In these four games, UCLA has only averaged an Offensive GameScore of 72, essentially meaning their offensive output has measured out to be about what these defenses tend to give up on average. I think this -3.5 line is a tad inflated due to UCLA's recent success on offense but was it really success? Find out Saturday.

Finnelytics Prediction

Arizona State 28 @ UCLA 21

Final Result

Arizona State 32 @ UCLA 42