WEEK 14 CFB FINNsider PICKS

Year to Date: 17-3 (85%)

Last Week: 5-0

Since the second half of their tilt against Penn State, something has definitely clicked for this Wolverine offense. They have blown out their last 3 opponents, scoring at least over 40 points in two of them. Michigan has also shown they can do it both through the air and on the ground. They ran wild against Notre Dame, going for over 300 on the ground. Then a few weeks later they throw for nearly 400 yards against Michigan State. They have yet to really put a solid balanced game out there offensively, but if they do they could be very dangerous. The Hoosiers have been a solid team on defense this year, but one thing to note is the struggles they have had stopping the run against upper-tier teams. Ohio State went for over 300, Penn State ran for almost 200.

There are a lot of people high on the 7-3 Hoosiers this year, but take a look at those seven wins. Their best win, per Finnelytics Power Rankings, was on the road against #61 Nebraska. Of the teams with a winning record in the BIG10, the Hoosiers are the only team with an Opponent Rank Rating less than 80. Four of their seven wins have come against teams ranked 100th or worse per FPR, and another two were against teams ranked in the 90s. You can't take away that they are still winning the games and covering in most cases, however, I think their 7-3 record is very misleading.

For the past month these two teams have been going in completely different directions. Tennessee has covered the spread in each of their last five games. Their defense has been playing phenomenal. Even in the game against Alabama where they gave up 35 points, that game was about to be a one-possession game until the Tide took a fumble back 99 yards for a touchdown. Offensively they still have their struggles. They went back to Jarrett Guarantano halfway through their game against Kentucky, he rewarded the move by leading Tennessee to a comeback victory. All signs are pointed to Guarantano getting the start against Missouri. Matchup wise the overall numbers may not paint the right picture as both teams have completely flipped a switch in opposite directions halfway through the season. Missouri's defense in the first half of the season was great, however, quite a different story over the past month.

Missouri's offense is the star of this pick. They have been atrocious for about a month now. Granted they have played some solid defenses in that stretch, they have only managed to score 27 points in FOUR games combined. Total yardage never eclipsed 300 in any of those four games and their Offensive GMSC never topped 60. Matchups are pointing towards a low scoring affair, making taking the 3.5 points a solid move. Tennesse is also coming off of a bye while Missouri is coming off of two straight body blow games in Georgia and Florida. Missouri just does not look to be in a very good place as a team right now with not much to play for other than a bowl bid, which they could lock up with ease against Arkansas next week anyways.

Both PAC12 playoff contenders will be playing out in the desert this weekend in must-win games. This matchup also provides Justin Herbert an ideal opportunity to boost his draft stock. Arizona State's defense has absolutely fallen apart. Earlier on this year, they were considered to be a team that was led by that unit, putting freshman Jayden Daniels in ideal situations to succeed. However, ever since they started playing Power5 teams their defense has really struggled, particularly through the air. They have a Defensive Pass Rating of just 56 when playing Power5 opponents and it has only gotten worse the last 2 weeks. Oregon can get a little run-heavy, but hopefully, they recognize the matchup and take advantage.

Arizona State has been favored the last three games, they have gone on to lose each game outright. Offensively they have been putting up their fair share of points and yards, but when compared to what these Pac-12 defenses normally surrender, it has been rather unimpressive.

Oregon is at the point of the season where they should be doing everything they can to impress the committee. If they want to be viewed as a playoff team then they should look to blow out the teams they are supposed to blow out.

USC freshman QB Kedon Slovis has been a pleasant surprise for the Trojans this year. Coming off of two straight 400 yards games including a game against a solid Cal Bears defense. With the tiebreaker over Utah, USC is still in the mix for the PAC-12 championship game. The UCLA defense has been dreadful all season with the exception of two games, both of which came against teams with poor offenses. The Trojans should have no problem attacking them through the air, they boast a top5 receiving core and Slovis is really starting to catch fire. Overall, I think UCLA will have a tough time keeping up with USC and will have to score at least 30 to keep pace with the line.

This is the first time I have strayed away from a Power5 matchup for a FINNsider pick, but just like last week I feel like Navy is being overvalued. Fresh off a thumping against Notre Dame where they were only 7 point dogs somehow. SMU's offense has been absolutely explosive all year, this whole game should rest on if Navy can keep up with SMU's offense or not.

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Week 13: 5-0

Week 12: 5-0

Week 11: 0-0

Week 10: 2-2

Week 9: 5-1