WEEK 13 CFB FINNsider PICKS

Year to Date: 12-3 (80%)

Last Week: 5-0

The Hokies are yet to lose a game this year when Hendon Hooker gets the start at quarterback. Three of the games were upset wins over Miami, UNC, and Wake Forest just last week. Those three games plus the win over FCS opponent Rhode Island are 4 of the 5 best offensive performances of the year for VTech, all of which were at least a 70 offensive game score per Finnelytics. Georgia Tech's defense has been the lone bright spot of the Jackets 2019 campaign, however, they still give up 30 PPG on average partly because of their offense putting them in some tough situations.

Offensively Georgia Tech is still transitioning from the option, and it is not going well at all. They eclipsed 200 passing yards for just the second time last week against a Virginia team without probably the best CB in the ACC Bryce Hall. Virginia Tech boasts an excellent rush defense this year which should benefit them in this matchup as GT is still a run-first team, rushing over 60% of the time.

Tua is still a game-time decision that could have a large impact on this game but the main driver of this pick is on the other side of the ball. For starters, Alabama is now ranked #5 in the CFB Playoff Poll and now must not only win out but do it impressively. Their defense may not be up to Bama standards this year, but it is still among the nations best. Against similar tier teams, Auburn and LSU, the Bulldogs offense sputtered. Averaging 18 points and right around 300 yards of offense while failing to cover in both games. The offense is led by explosive RB Kylin Hill but unfortunately combined with true freshman Garret Shrader at quarterback making this offense somewhat one-dimensional. They run the ball over 60% of the time and struggle to find explosiveness through the air. A one-dimensional offense is something that could help the "struggling" Alabama defense. The combination of the defensive matchup and the added motivation of knowing what they need to do are the main drivers behind this Alabama pick.

Talent-wise Notre Dame is way more than a touchdown better than Navy. Navy has been a pleasant surprise this year, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They have performed very well against the run which technically does not match up well for the Irish who at times have become a run-heavy team especially in games in which Ian Book struggles. However, looking deeper into this Navy schedule you'll notice it is extremely weak. The schedule includes FCS foe Holy Cross and three teams that have won 3 or fewer games (East Carolina, Tulsa, and UConn). The only (non-option) team they have played who is above average has been Memphis, a game in which the Midshipmen lost by 12, however, their defense did again perform well.

Essentially the matchup may not be the best fit for Notre Dame, but in reality Navy may be a tad too over-valued and talent-wise 7.5 points just should not be enough.

A lot of the public is all over the Missouri Home/Away splits. It is true they are 5-0 at home and 0-4 on the road but take a look at who they are playing in those games. The Tigers road games thus far have consisted of Wyoming to open the year, Vandy, Kentucky, and Georgia in their last 3 games. Two of those are rather terrible losses in Wyoming and Vanderbilt. At home, they have played the gauntlet of West Virginia, Southeast Missouri St, South Carolina, Troy, and Ole Miss. The common theme among those opponents is an average, or worse, defense. The five teams give up an average of 28 PPG along with 400 yards of offense and an average Finnelytics Defensive Rating of 70, which would rank 90th in the nation.

Kelly Bryant will be back but has struggled against solid defenses even dating back to his Clemson career. Florida has a very solid, balanced defense and I would be shocked if Missouri reaches 20 points.

Easily the marquee game of the week across the nation, Georgia will look to show why they were just placed inside the top 4 of the playoff rankings. This game will probably be a close low scoring affair making the difference between -2.5 and 3+ a deal-breaker when picking Georgia. Georgia looks to be back on their dominant track after their upset loss against the Gamecocks, shutting out Kentucky and Missouri on top of a solid win against Florida. The confidence in this pick lies on the defensive side of the ball for the Bulldogs. With a freshman at quarterback, the Auburn Tigers a very run-heavy team (60%) which perfectly fits into this Georgia defense who comes in as the 4th best rush defense according to Finnelytics (93 Rtg). If Georgia can force Bo Nix to beat them through the air and score over 20 points offensively then they should be in good shape to cover.

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Week 12: 5-0

Week 11: 0-0

Week 10: 2-2

Week 9: 5-1