It's a Trap! - Texas Tech

According to Fanduel Sportbook, Texas Tech's win total is set at 5 wins for the 2021 season. The Red Raiders are predicted to finish towards the bottom of the Big12 by most experts and that does not come at much of a surprise. Finnelytics is projecting Tech to go 6-6 which would be enough for a bowl game and the Over. Those 6 wins include 4 games in which Finnelytics projects Tech to be double-digit favorites against Houston (Currently -2.5 favorites on DraftKings), Stephen F. Austin, FIU, and Kansas. Close wins over Baylor and Kansas State finish the six.

That leaves projected losses to Texas, WVU, TCU, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma has Tech sandwiched between Kansas and a bye week so the Sooners do not really fit the narrative, but let's be real that is probably a loss anyways.

Unfortunately, Finnelytics has Texas Tech losing by double digits in all 6 of these games and Tech will presumably be heavy underdogs coming into each one. However, 4 of the 5 remaining opponents of their projected losses either face the Sooners the week before or after they face off with Texas Tech. 3 of them (TCU, Iowa State, and OK State) get the Sooners right after Tech, giving the Red Raiders 3 optimal trap games in Big12 play. On top of that, TCU and Iowa State both have the Longhorns the week prior. The ULTIMATE Big12 Let-down Lookahead Sandwich and the Red Raiders get 2 of them in 2021.

As long as the Raiders handle their business out of conference and against Kansas, there is a solid chance the over is a great play. Finnelytics is giving Texas Tech just a 17% chance to win 4 or fewer games. Along with a 19% chance of a push with 5 wins, which then results in a 64% chance of the Red Raiders finding their way to 6 wins in 2021.