BEST BETS: WEEK 8

Finnelytics
Oct 14, 2021
4 min read

YTD: 12-12 (50%)

ALL-TIME 63-42 (60%)

2020 29-22 (57%)

2019 22-8 (73%)

FLORIDA (-11.5) @ LSU

SATURDAY 12:00 EST | ESPN

LSU flat out is not in a good spot as a team. Season-ending injuries to key players are coming in one after the other. Their two coveted starting corners Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks are now both out for the season. Star WR, Kayshon Boutte, is also out for the year. Just a few hours ago it was also reported DE, Ali Gaye, will also be out for the rest of the year. On top of all the injuries, there is also non-stop talk about Ed Orgeron's future at LSU.

With all that going on, in comes Florida. Unfortunately, with 2 conference losses, any future postseason goals are pretty much gone at this point and hopefully, that doesn't hamper their play. Last week Kentucky put up over 300 yards on the ground against LSU, Florida comes in averaging 273 YPG at a 6.7 YPC clip.

IOWA (-11.5) vs PURDUE

SATURDAY 3:30 EST | ABC

The Hawkeye defense continues to roll on. Purdue's offense continues to be terrible. This game features two of the worst offenses in the Power5 and the under here would not be a terrible play either. Iowa, however, may again take advantage of poor QB play for the opposition which could once again set their offense up in favorable spots where they do not have to be great. Iowa will be without starting CB, Riley Moss, which could be a huge loss.

Aiden O'Connell made the start at QB for Purdue last week which may have marked the official change from Jack Plummer. The interesting part of that is ball security. Plummer has appeared to lose the starting job without even throwing an interception yet this year. O'Connell comes into this week with 5 INT's to just 4 touchdowns. Not a good recipe when facing this Iowa defense. (Even though it has to stop eventually)

OKLAHOMA (TT ov40.5) vs TCU

SATURDAY 7:30 EST | ABC

Oklahoma has had all eyes on them this past week in college football. Obviously, Caleb Williams taking over and leading the Sooners epic comeback to beat Texas deserves such attention. Assuming the switch to Williams is permanent, many believe Williams gives a much more dynamic look to this Sooners offense. TCU comes into this week playing some uncharacteristic defense. The Horned Frogs are generally a very solid defensive unit, especially in the secondary. Without elite secondary play, TCU has really dropped defensively. They have been absolutely terrible against the run in their last 3 games, giving up an average of 278 yards a game. The Sooners have had a solid year rushing the ball and things really took off last week when Williams gave them that aforementioned extra dynamic on the ground.

Oklahoma -13.5 could also now be a solid play with news of TCU potentially being without their starting QB and RB, Max Duggan and Zach Evans. Finnelytics already like the Sooners by 17, may not be a terrible idea to act now before any news drops and the line changes. Duggan is a huge part of the TCU offense, averaging over 10 carries a game as the QB.

UCLA (+2.5) @ WASHINGTON

SATURDAY 8:30 EST | FOX

Washington still has not done anything to prove they should even be favored in this spot (Even though Finnelytics has them winning as well). Outside of a dominant performance against Arkansas State, the Huskies rush defense has been average at best. Which includes 2 games against Oregon State (242 YDS, 4.8 YPC) and Michigan (343 YDS, 6.1 YPC). UCLA is a run-heavy team and has been very successful at doing so and should have a favorable matchup this week against Washington.

The most concerning part of this matchup is how the schedules are laid out. This is the first game of a huge 3 game stretch for UCLA with Oregon and Utah on deck. Fortunately, UCLA knows they can not afford to drop any more conference games so overlooking Washington should not even be a thought. Conversely, Washington is coming off a bye and has Arizona up next.