BEST BETS: WEEK 7

Finnelytics
Oct 8, 2021
3 min read

YTD: 10-10 (50%)

ALL-TIME 61-40 (61%)

2020 29-22 (57%)

2019 22-8 (73%)

ALABAMA (-17.5) @ TEXAS A&M | SATURDAY 8:00 EST | CBS

Texas A&M has dropped 2 straight games and has really been damaged by injuries as of late. Obviously, they are already on to their backup QB, Zach Calzada which has really hampered their passing game and in result has made them a pretty one-dimensional offense. Isaiah Spiller is one of the best RBs in the nation, but he can only do what his OL lets him do. TAMU already started the year with 4 new starters along the line and now may be without starting C Luke Matthews again this week. The unit has struggled a bit this year and now will face a Bama defense that is giving up just 3.1 YPC while holding every opponent under 100 yards except for Florida. The offensive matchup for TAMU just does not set up well in any facet.

Offensively, Alabama has quietly continued to roll on. This will easily be the toughest defense they have faced so far this year. However, just like on offense, the TAMU defense is being hampered by injuries as well, particularly in the secondary.

VIRGINIA (+2.5) @ LOUISVILLE | SATURDAY 3:00 EST | ACCN

This game includes two porous defenses and is expected to be a shootout. Jelani Woods is expected to be back for Virginia which is a very important part of their offense which they even managed to beat Miami last week without. Brennan Armstrong has been one of the best statistical Quarterbacks in the nation and should not see much resistance at all this weekend at Louisville. The addition of Wayne Taulapapa back from injury last week seemed to spark the running game a bit against Miami as well.

The bottomline, taking the better quarterback and the points in a potential shootout.

PENN STATE (+1.5) @ IOWA | SATURDAY 4:00 EST | FOX

Eventually, it has to stop. Eventually, Iowa will not feast off of turnovers. This game will likely be a low-scoring, close affair. Penn State is easily the best defense Iowa has faced since its Week 3 matchup against Iowa State, a game where they totaled 173 yards and just 2.9 YPP. Yet, it was another double-digit win for the Hawkeyes because they won the turnover 4-0. Per Finnelytics ratings, Iowa easily has the worst offense in the Top25 rankings, the issue is that the offense has not been needed yet, eventually, it has to change.

Not only is Penn State possibly the best defense Iowa will have faced this year, but their offense is probably the best as well. Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lion passing attack has been much improved and outside of MAYBE Maryland, it is the best Iowa has seen yet. Don't expect Penn State to have a great day offensively, but the fact that the Iowa defense might actually be tested is enough.

End of the day, this game will most likely come down to Penn State taking care of the ball and making sure this Hawkeye offense is as bad as it is rated.

MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) @ RUTGERS | SATURDAY 12:00 EST | BTN

Michigan State has been one of the bigger surprises of the CFB season thus far. They have the nation's leading rusher in Kenneth Walker and their passing attack has even improved as well with Payton Thorne at the helm. The Spartans have featured a very balanced and successful offense so far.

Defensively the Spartans have been a bit leaky defending the pass. Luckily, Rutgers may not have the weapons to take advantage of that. Outside of a 334-yard outburst against Delaware, Rutgers has had a poor passing performance in every game, failing to reach 200 yards in 3 of their 5 games so far.