BEST BETS: WEEK 6

Finnelytics
Oct 1, 2021
4 min read

YTD: 8-8 (50%)

ALL-TIME 59-38 (61%)

2020 29-22 (57%)

2019 22-8 (73%)

OREGON (-7.5) @ STANFORD | SATURDAY 3:30 EST | ABC

Oregon has been one of the biggest surprise teams of the year since they knocked off Ohio State in week 3. Since then they have rolled through two weak teams in Stony Brook and Arizona. They should have an elite matchup on the ground this weekend against Stanford. Stanford is currently giving up over 5 YPC on the ground this year and has let up over 200 yards in 3 of their first 4 games. Through their first 4 games, Stanford has managed to have the 6th worst Rush Defense GameScore in the FBS per Finnelytics. Which includes three scores below 30 and two of 20 which is the worst possible GameScore.

Offensively, Stanford has been much improved since they made the switch at QB to Tanner McKee. For Oregon defensively, Kayvon Thibodeaux finally returned to action last week against Arizona, he did not find the stat sheet but I would expect that to change the healthier he gets.

USC (-7.5) @ COLORADO | SATURDAY 2:00 EST | PACN

USC has been disappointing so far this season, there is no denying that. Clay Helton is already gone and the Trojans lost by 18 as 11 points favorites last week to Oregon State. Then enters Colorado. The Buffs are really struggling this year. Outside of a solid performance against Texas A&M (Where Haynes King went down mid-game), the buffs have not been able to get anything going offensively putting up just 20 points combined in their last 3 games. Colorado may find some success on the ground against USC, as the Trojans have been a little inconsistent in stopping the run so far this season. However, Colorado has presented absolutely no threat through the air early on. The Buffs have been held under 100 passing yards in each of their last 3 games. To make matters worse, starting left tackle, Max Wray left last week's game with an injury and will not play this weekend.

Offensively, USC has been rather inconsistent. There has been essentially no run game to speak of thus far, but that may not be an issue. Expect USC to air it out this weekend against a Colorado pass defense that has just put up back-to-back sub 50 GameScores against two run-heavy teams in Minnesota and Arizona State.

PENN STATE (-12.5) vs INDIANA | SATURDAY 7:30 EST | ABC

A revenge game on deck? Possibly, but if anything the thought of how last year's tilt against Indiana finished should at least not let Penn State look ahead to a potential top10 matchup against Iowa. Michael Penix and his Indiana offense have been nothing close to their 2020 version and have really struggled against any stronger opponent. Now they face an always tough Penn State defense. It is possible the Nittany Lions defense has not really faced a competent offense yet this year, however, their Defensive GameScore of 82 so far this year ranks them 10th in the FBS. GameScore's take into account how a team's performance stacks up against their opponent's average performance. Therefore even though PSU has not faced a great offense yet, they are still shutting them down better than others.

The biggest surprise of Penn State's season thus far is the emergence of a realistic passing threat on offense. Sam Clifford has been drastically better this year and the combination of Johan Dotson and Parker Washington. Assuming star CB, Tiawan Mullen covers Dotson, expect a big game out of Parker Washington on the other side of the field.

ARMY (-9.5) @ BALL STATE | SATURDAY 5:00 EST | ESPN+

Army continues to quietly roll on. Fueled by a very solid defense and of course their option rushing attack that has managed over 300 yards in each of their last 3 games. Army travels to Ball State this weekend who has really struggled this year. Offensively, they have not managed to score 2 touchdowns in any of their last 3 games, averaging just 12.3 PPG in that stretch. Ball State is averaging a dismal 5.3 YPA through the air which does not set them up for a favorable matchup against this Army defense. The only team to give Army any issues defensively so far has been Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky airs it out and does it effectively as you may have seen against Indiana last week. The Hilltoppers managed to score 35 against Army and threw for 435 yards. Outside of that Army has averaged just 13 PPG in their other 3 games which includes 21 against UConn in a game that was 42-0 at the half.

The option is always a different animal to stop completely, however, Ball State comes into this game allowing just shy of 5 YPC on average. Army should have a very favorable matchup on the ground and that is an absolute nightmare for an opponent.

This line started below a touchdown and has since ballooned up to 9.5.