BEST BETS: WEEK 5

Finnelytics
Sep 24, 2021
4 min read

YTD: 6-6 (50%)

ALL-TIME 57-36 (61%)

2020 29-22 (57%)

2019 22-8 (73%)

MISSOURI (-1.5) @ BOSTON COLLEGE | SATURDAY 12:00 EST | ESPN2

Boston College is off to a 3-0 start this year, however, that may be a little deceiving. Not only are two of those game against Colgate and UMass, they also faced backup QBs against UMass and Temple. UMass still managed to put up 28 points against the Eagles. Offensively, the revamped BC unit was off to a hot start until starting QB Phil Jurkocek went down with hand surgery. In BC's first game with Dennis Grossel at QB, the offense sputtered against Temple. Without the threat of their new highly explosive offense and the concerns they have on defense could set up for a big day for Missouri.

Missouri's offense has rolled along so far in 2021, acheiveing at least 5 YPP in each of their first 3 games. Boston College has not seen any type of a test from an offense so far this year so their numbers are tough to read. However, based off of some poor defensive GameScores, especially when defending the run could also bode well for the Tigers.

INDIANA (-9.5) @ WESTERN KENTUCKY | SATURDAY 8:00 EST | CBSSN

The Hoosiers offense and Michael Penix have been victim to a lot of negativity from the CFB world with their poor start to the season. However, the Hoosiers have faced 2 very strong defenses already this year in Iowa and Cincinnati, where many teams and QBs will struggle. Western Kentuky's defense has had a rough start to the year especially on the ground giving up over 200 yards in each of their first 2 games (granted one was against Army). Expect Indiana to have a solid day on the ground.

Western Kentucky however, will give Indiana its toughest test on defense. The Hilltoppers air it out and have done it well so far in 2021. Indiana does have the talent in the secondary to limit it though, led by Taiwan Mullen at CB. There should not be much of a threat on the ground for Indiana to worry about, and their run defense has been solid all year anyways.

DUKE (ov36.5) vs KANSAS | SATURDAY 4:00 EST | ACCN

As expected, Kansas has had a terrible time trying to stop anyone so far this year, especially on the ground. The Jayhawks are surrendering over 220+ yards a game at a 5.5 YPC clip in 2021. Look for Duke's Mataeo Durant to have a great day. Through the first 3 games Durant has run for just shy of 400 yards and 7 touchdowns at a 6.0 YPC clip.

Duke -15.5 is also an intriguing line and the Finnelytics Model like the Blue Devils there as well. However, personally Duke's leaky defense is just enough for me to shy away from giving over 2 touchdowns.

NEBRASKA (+4.5) @ MICHIGAN STATE | SATURDAY 7:00 EST | FS1

Finnelytics was on Nebraska week 1 against Illinois and the Huskers were terrible. Since then Nebraska has played great going 2-1 and playing Oklahoma close last week. Their passing attack has woken up, recording 3 straight GameScores in the 90s against Fordham, Buffalo, and Oklahoma, throwing for right around 300 YPG in that stretch and over 10 YPA in every game. Protecting QB, Adrian Martinez, will be a huge part of the game. In both losses (Illinois and Oklahoma) Nebraska allowed 5 sacks, as opposed to zero against Buffalo and Fordham. Michigan State comes into today with 8 total sacks in 3 games.

Michigan State has been a popular storyline early on this season, starting off 3-0. Unfortunatley, Northwestern, Youngstown State, and what may be an overrated Miami team do not make a very solid stretch. The Spartans have climbed all the way to #21 in the Finnelytics Rankings not only because of their 3-0 start but because of how they have performed. With GameScores over 70 in every game so far, the Spartans are performing better than what their opponents general give up. Except for one area, pass defense. Michigan State has yet to record a Pass D GameScore over 70 in any game this year. Combine that with how Nebraska is performing through the air in recent games and that should be a solid recipe for the Huskers to take advantage.