BEST BETS: WEEK 8

YTD: 6-9 (40%) All-Time 28-17 (62%)

ALABAMA (-3.5) vs Georgia

The marquee game of a rather lackluster week in CFB has been highlighted with the news of Nick Saban testing positive with Covid this past Wednesday. Prior to that news, this line reached 6.5 favoring the Crimson Tide, it has now slid down to 3.5. I am not sure how much this will really affect the game.

The Georgia defense is obviously elite. However, Tennessee still managed to score 14 points on offense against them (plus another touchdown on special teams). Alabama's offense is far superior to the Vols. Alabama has just as many weapons on offense as Georgia does on defense. It is tough to see a game where Bama does not get theirs on offense.

Offensively, Georgia is still pretty average. They lack explosiveness and are still the same old Georgia with Stetson Bennett at the helm. Georgia has not eclipsed 30 points against Alabama once in this decade. With how Bama's offense scores you would have to think Georgia would at least have to be in the mid20s to have a shot at covering.

Overall, the line movement may just be some overthinking the matchup. End of the day, a Stetson Bennett lead Bulldogs team is heading into Alabama. Is Nick Saban really worth 2.5 points of movement? Saban is still coaching virtually throughout the week, he will obviously be involved in the gameplan. Barring any Alabama players being held out due to Covid in the next couple of tests.

OLE MISS (-1.5) vs Arkansas

Ole Miss has been one of the most electric offenses so far this year. Unfortunately, their defense has made opposing offenses just as electric as well. The Ole Miss defense is currently sporting a Defensive Game Score of 25 through the first 2 games this year which is the worst in the Power5. However, they also come in with an Offensive GMSC of 92, which is the best mark in the Power5. The question in this game will be if Arkansas has enough firepower to keep up with Ole Miss.

Defensively, the Razorbacks have been really poor against the pass so far this year, coming in with a Defensive Pass GMSC of just 56. The Ole Miss offense should rack up the points.

WAKE FOREST (+2.5) vs Virginia

Assuming Virginia QB, Brennan Armstrong is still out with a concussion, the Cavs will be lead by Lindell Stone. With Stone at QB, Virginia will likely try to strive for a much slower game and control the ball. Wake Forest will likely try to do the complete opposite. Wake is a very up-tempo team and their offense has shown plenty of explosiveness even with their 1-2 record.

LOW CONFIDENCE BONUS BETS

YTD: 8-4 (67%)

KENTUCKY (+4.5) vs Tennessee

Obviously, Georgia's defense is one of, if not the best in the nation, so one would expect teams to struggle against them. Kentucky also boasts a pretty solid defense and they tend to play teams close and even survived a shootout last week against Ole Miss, only losing by 1. This week should be a much lower scoring affair and could easily see Kentucky hanging around again.

TEXAS A&M (-6.5) vs Mississippi St (MODEL DISAGREES)

This is pretty much a fade Mississippi State until further notice bet. The Bulldogs offense has looked horrendous ever since that debut win against LSU. Costello looked dreadful last week and was benched in the process. TAMU has a solid defense that should give Miss St enough issues.