BEST BETS: WEEK 7

YTD: 5-5 (50%) All-Time 28-14 (67%)

LOUISVILLE (-5.5) vs Georgia Tech

This FRIDAY night matchup line just does not really make sense to me. Georgia Tech's defense has not been good in 2020 and their youth on offense has also put them in bad spots with turnovers in just about every game. Louisville has dropped 2 straight games, but the offense is still explosive and should be able to move the ball with ease against this Jackets defense.

Georgia Tech's one win came against the Seminoles which is looking worse and worse by the week. Since then they lost to a poor Syracuse team and a solid UCF team. Jeff Sims has plenty of hype for the future and makes some great plays, however, the ball security has been a huge issue.

Normally a weeknight road matchup is a tough place to lay the points, but Louisville was off last week so that should be a non-issue. Like Louisville big tonight.

MIAMI (+14.5) vs Clemson

Probably the most highly anticipated matchup of the weekend also carries a two touchdown line with it. The Cane's offense has been electric this year with the addition of D'Eriq King who has firmly planted himself in the Heisman race. Last week Clemson struggled to limit Brennan Armstrong on the groud. They now face King who is much more dynamic and more of a threat on the ground. This also creates an issue when you factor in TE Brevin Jordan and the historic struggles Clemson has limiting Tight Ends. Containing King and Jordan will be priorities but that is obviously easier said than done.

Offensively, Clemson is still looking for their big play threats through the air at receiver. Ladson and Ngata are coming along, but the loss of Higgins and Ross is still looming large. Clemson offense should still manage to score plenty, however, 14.5 points just seems like too much for how explosive Miami's offense has been.

UNDER (45.5) | Tennessee vs Georgia

This contest features two run heavy teams that have no problem playing conserative and slow. Tennessee features one of the best offensive lines in the nation which will have its toughest matchup yet against what is probably the best defense in the nation. Georgia will presumably stack the box against the Vols and force Jarrett Guarantano to the beat them. Guarantano has pretty bad on passing downs throughout his Tennessee career so if Georgia can keep the Vols behind the sticks on the early downs one would imagine it being a long day for the Tennessee offense.

After all this talk in the offseason of a new, explosive offense, the Bulldogs are right back to normal. A very conservative rushing approach proved to work just fine against Auburn, and would expect to see more of the same this week. Keep in mind Georgia faces off against Alabama next week so you would have to expect Georgia will not be eager to show anything special this week, and may aslo lead to a little look ahead situation as well.

LOW CONFIDENCE BONUS BETS

YTD: 7-3 (70%)

OVER (42.5) Pittsburgh vs Boston College

A matchup that would traditionally be a run heavy, defensive matchup looks like it may turn into the opposite. Boston College has been slinging the ball all over the place this year. The last two games the Eagles have thrown the ball 38 and 56 times respectively. The YPA is not impressive yet, but just the stylistic change and trending towards a much more spread open offense. Jurkovec is 4th among power 5 quarterbacks in pass attempts.

Pittsburgh really struggled defending the pass last week against NC State. Their secondary was flagged all day with holding and pass interference calls, and really just did not look good.

Offensively, the Panthers should be run a heavy team, however, they tend to just let it go mid game and pass away. Kenny Pickett is currently 2nd among power 5 QBs in pass attempts this year. They have played 4 games already, however.

FLORIDA (-6.5) vs Texas A&M (MODEL DISAGREES)

The Florida offense continues to impress and Texas A&M continues to disappoint. Whether Texas A&M may have already "checked out" this season or they are just struggling, things just are not looking fluid on offense. The loss of their best receiver opting out has really taken a toll on the explosiveness of the offense and I would image things will continue this week against the Gators defense.