BEST BETS: WEEK 6

Finnelytics Best Bets went 2-1 last week. YTD: 5-3 (63%) All-Time 27-11 (71%)

TOP PLAY: PITTSBURGH (-14.5) vs NC State

The Wolfpack defense has experienced a tough start to the 2020 campaign, giving up over 40 points in each of their first two games this year. Virginia Tech ran all over NC State a week ago even with a backup (pretty solid backup) QB at the helm. This matchup bodes well for the Panthers since the sore spot of their team is easily the offense. They struggle to find explosive plays, so hopefully, the NC State defense relieves that pain.

Their defense has been stellar all year and I stick to believing they are a top5 unit in the nation. Ideally, the NC State defense continues their trend and Pitt can actually take advantage of things on offense making it a solid play for the Panthers.

OKLAHOMA (-7.5) vs Iowa State

Oklahoma lost to Kansas State for the second straight year last week, obviously not a good look. Spencer Rattler showed some turnover issues, and the defense just didn't look good (nothing new there). I fully expect Oklahoma to bounce back and avoid two straight losses, so hopefully, this is a reactionary line and something to take advantage of. In the past two years, Oklahoma has been favored in this matchup by a minimum of 14 points. (Iowa State did cover both games, however) At 7.5 points, I feel like only Oklahoma's recency bias is being taken into effect.

Let's not forget this is an Iowa State team that lost by 17 week one to UL-Lafayette and then squeaked by TCU who was without their starting QB until he entered the game in the second half just to throw 3 touchdowns and almost lead TCU to victory. The Cyclone offense did improve last week with the addition of Charlie Kolar, but they are still not at the level everyone was projecting them to be this year. Their defense is concerning part. TCU managed to throw for 400 yards and almost eclipse 500 total yards en route to 34 points last week. This is the same TCU offense that will probably land towards the bottom of the BIG12 as always. If Oklahoma takes care of the ball there is no reason why they shouldn't score 40 or so points.

Defensively, bottling up Breece Hall is a must for Oklahoma. Brock Purdy really has not looked the same without big-play threats at wide receiver. In 2018, Purdy broke out with the help of 6'6", big-play threat, Hakeem Butler who notched over 1,300 yards. Last year, Deshaunte Jones and LaMichael Pettway combined for 1,500 yards and 8 touchdowns. All 3 of those names are now gone and many are expecting Tarique Milton to be the guy in 2020. Milton is coming into Saturday with just 3 catches for 18 yards. So there is obviously a huge gap in the ISU pass game therefore making sure Breece Hall is the focus is a must for OU.

It is also worth considering Oklahoma must believe they have no more room for error if they have playoff aspirations, which one would assume they do.

UNDER (44.5) | Auburn vs Georgia

Not a huge fan of taking unders, especially ones that are popular picks. However, all signs are pointing to a very low scoring affair in this one.

Georgia listed 3 co-starters at QB on their depth chart, therefore leading to no consistency within their passing game. D'Wan Mathis got the start week 1 and was benched after a very lackluster 1st half. Stetson Bennett came in and played well, going 20-29 for over 200 yards and 2 TDs. JT Daniels has been cleared and will now join the mix as well. Auburn is a pretty defensive team, to begin with, so without the consistency in the passing game, I am not sure how Georgia can expect to put up any big points.

Auburn played well against Kentucky week 1, however, the explosive plays are still not there. Outside of Seth Williams, the Tigers just do not have many big-play threat guys at receiver. This Georgia defense is just too good of a unit to face without big-time threats at receiver. Not only is Auburn limited at receiver, but they also had to replace their entire offensive line this offseason. Just another scary thought when they are lining up against what is probably the best defense in the nation.

NORTH CAROLINA (-13.5) vs Boston College

This is potentially another opportunity to take advantage of a reactionary line. Boston College has started off 2-0 after barely edging Texas State last week. The Eagles were actually outgained by Texas State and really just outplayed. Their other win came against Duke, which included 5 Duke turnovers. (This trend continued for Duke, giving the ball over 7 times to UVA last week) So really this is about an unimpressive 2-0 start as you can get.

UNC has been off for the last 2 weeks after their game against Charlotte was PPD. In week one they struggled early against Syracuse, but at the end of the day, they turned things on offensively in the second half and covered. The Tar Heels offense is just full of explosive players and just in the pure matchup analysis are projected to score over 50 points. This side of the ball should not be a concern for UNC.

Defensively, the Tar Heels played well in their only game against Syracuse week one. However, Cuse has one of the worst offenses in the conference. Boston College has not really impressed thus far offensively. Tight End, Hunter Long has played very well, but if he can be bottled up by someone like Chaz Surratt then BC really becomes limited on where they can go. With key WR, Kobay White, out with injury, Zay Flowers has stepped up a bit to be the lead receiver. BC may struggle to find the big, explosive plays it needs to keep up with UNC, and I feel like if this game was played later in the year the line would up around 20+.

LOW CONFIDENCE BONUS BETS

Low confidence bets went 2-2 last week. YTD: 5-3 (63%)

AIR FORCE (+6.5) vs Navy

The Mountain West has recently hopped back into the 2020 season, but before that Air Force was planning to play just 2 games, Nacy and Army. Obviously, these programs know each other extremely well so I am not sure how much of an advantage this is, but the fact that Air Force has been planning and practice for Navy for about a month, it must help them out a bit.

Air Force has some questions personnel-wise with numerous defensive starters of an already inexperienced defense have opted out. Also 2019 starting QB, Donald Hammond, status is "in limbo" as he lost his status of "cadet in good standing" in the offseason. He would have been returning for his senior year and a huge centerpiece to the Air Force offense.

Navy looked terrible against BYU, and terrible in the first half against Tulane before turning things around to win it late. They have had their struggles at the QB position as well.

ALABAMA (-17.5) vs Texas A&M

Whether Texas A&M was overlooking Vanderbilt or not (they probably were) it was still a very concerning performance. The offense has some very big question marks to fix at receiver after Jhaman Ausbon opted out. Vanderbilt also managed to get plenty of pressure on Kellen Mond all game forcing him to look pretty uncomfortable and had him opting to scramble early. One would have to imagine if Vanderbilt could force that than Bama will have a field day.

17.5 is a lot of points, but overall the loss of Ausbon really puts this TAMU offense in a hole and that is never a good thing against the Tide.