BEST BETS: WEEK 16

Finnelytics
Dec 11, 2020
3 min read

YTD: 22-21 (51%) All-Time 44-29 (60%)

USC (-2.5) | vs UCLA

USC has quietly started their shortened year off 4-0. They snuck away with 2 close wins to start, but the offense has continued to improve and they won their last two games with ease. Last week against Washington State they put up an early 28 1st quarter points and coasted from there. UCLA is much improved from a year ago, and this is probably the best they have been under Chip Kelly, however, the defense is still not there. This USC passing attack should continue its hot streak and put up plenty of points.

Defensively, USC has been okay. They were solid last week against Washington State, however, this UCLA team will bring much more to the table. The Bruins offense has been fantastic on the ground and has done what they needed through the air. Lead by Hufanga USC has been pretty solid against the run this year. This will be their toughest test, and slowing up this UCLA rushing attack is the most pivotal part of a USC cover.

UTAH (+1.5) | vs COLORADO

Utah has started off 1-2 and they are nowhere near last year's team that found its way to the PAC12 championship. They are a young team, especially on defense and particularly in the secondary. The Colorado Buffs come in a surprising 4-0 but may struggle to take advantage of the young secondary. The Buff's have become a pretty one-dimensional team. Jarek Broussard racked up over 300 yards on the ground last week and now has over 700 through 4 games for Colorado. Containing Broussard is the recipe for a Utes cover. The Utes have been solid against the run this year and their front line is the veteran anchor of the defense. The game style should match up well for Utah.

Offensively, Utah has not really put everything together so far. Transfer QB, Jake Bentley has not lived up to whatever hype he came in with, but he has improved week to week. The passing game may be Colorado's weakest area on defense and a solid game from Bentley could be on the horizon. Colorado gave up over 300 yards to UCLA and Stanford to start the season, then performed much better against a run-heavy San Diego St and then Arizona lead by their backup QB. Look for Colorado's pass D to look more like it did to open season.

ILLINOIS (+13.5) vs NORTHWESTERN

Northwestern has had a fantastic season and is headed to the BIG10 championship no matter what happens in this game. Not only does this game have a huge potential for a look-ahead spot for the Wildcats, but they are also favored by 2 touchdowns. What have you seen in the Northwestern offense to cover 2 touchdowns? Their opening win against Maryland (45-3) would be the only time they covered 14 points. Both teams run the ball a lot so this should be a quick-moving game with not many points scored. Even vegas isn't giving Northwestern much wiggle room with a total of just 40.5 in a game that features a 2 touchdown favorite.

Illinois' offensive numbers really took a hit after they were forced to play 3rd and 4th string QBs in losses against Minnesota and Purdue earlier this year. They are much more balanced with Brandon Peters at QB and that will be needed against a stout Northwestern defense. The Wildcats have seen some tough games against the run this year against Nebraska and just last week against Michigan State. Two, not so stellar teams, managed to put up basically 200 yards each against Northwestern.