BEST BETS: WEEK 15

Finnelytics
Dec 4, 2020
4 min read

YTD: 20-19 (51%) All-Time 42-27 (61%)

OHIO STATE (-24.5) | vs MICHIGAN STATE

With a lot of talk about Ohio State being left out of the playoffs, one could expect to see a team that will hold nothing back and runs up the score. Michigan State has been awful this year, particularly on offense. This is important because the Ohio State defense has not really met their expectations so far this year. Michael Penix and Indiana lit them up for almost 500 yards through the air the last time we saw the Buckeyes take the field. Ohio State should take all the negative talk personally combined with Michigan State's lackluster passing game, we could see a solid performance out of the Ohio State defense. The games where OSU struggled through the air came against teams with some excellent WR's. Indiana's duo of Fryfogle and Whop are top tier wideouts in the BIG10. Penn State's Dotson also falls in that category as well. Other than a freshman in Ricky White, Michigan State will struggle to find someone who can make plays down the field.

The combination of a poor Michigan State offense and an Ohio State team that can't really afford to let up off the gas in the second half could hopefully steam a blowout.

TEXAS A&M (-6.5) | vs AUBURN

Texas A&M is another team right smack in the middle of the playoff talk. They are coming off of what was possibly their worst performance of the year last week against LSU. A game that still ended in a 20-7 victory. Their defense has not skipped a beat all year. Other than a 200+ yard performance by Arkansas, this Texas A&M defense has dominated against the run all year. Coming in ranked #7 by Finnelytics and holding their opponents to nearly 40 yards below their average, which ranks 30th in the nation.

Auburn's offense is also a solid matchup for Texas A&M. Their run-heavy offense led by impressive freshman Tank Bigsby will have a tough matchup against the mentioned TAMU rush D. Bo Nix just has not taken that next step everyone was hoping for this year. Their passing attack has struggled once again this year, coming into this week's matchup with a 55 Game Score per Finnelytics, ranking 178th.

Offensively, Texas A&M has been leaning hard on Isaiah Spiller and their run game. We watched Tennessee absolutely run all over Auburn 2 weeks ago in a game where it seemed like the Vols could have easily won if they just did not throw the ball. Auburn's 4.1 YPC against ranks 93rd in the nation and TAMU should be able to take advantage.

WASHINGTON (-11.5) vs STANFORD

This matchup sets up great for the Huskies. Stanford is in the midst of another tough year and it is rough on both sides of the ball this year. The most intriguing matchup this game holds is the Washington run game against what has been a dreadful Stanford rush defense this year. In two of their three games this year they allowed over 6.5 yards per attempt. The Oregon Ducks put up 269 on the group at a 6.7 YPC clip, then Cal managed 241 rushing yards with 6.9 YPC. Now they face a Washington team with a coach who wears a Run the Dang Ball hat postgame. They struggled a bit last week on the ground against Utah (partly because they fell behind early), however, they put up two straight 200+ yards performances to start off their year before that.

Offensively, Stanford continues to struggle running the ball. If that continues against Washington they could be in for a very long game. If Washington does not have to add an extra focus to stopping the run game then their solid secondary could wreak havoc on what is also not a very solid Cardinal pass game. Washington will probably have to hold Stanford below 20 points to cover the 11.5 because of how conservative the Huskies can be at times this year.

SOUTH CAROLINA (+11.5) vs KENTUCKY

This could be the riskiest pick of the four. South Carolina has had a terrible year and the check out factor may be an issue. However, the matchup itself is still intriguing. Kentucky is an extremely run-heavy team and has struggled to cover this year because of their inability to pull away from teams or score enough to hang around. They are just 3-6 ATS this year. South Carolina may struggle to stop the Wildcat rushing attack, which could be problematic. However, both teams will likely be leaning on the run game in a game that features just a 46.5 point total. It should be a quick-moving game that helps out the underdog cover.

The bright spot of South Carolina's season has been Kevin Harris at running back. Their rushing attack has been solid all year. Kentucky is viewed as a ground and pound team with a solid defense, however, their rush D has actually been rather poor. They had a really rough five-game stretch before their last game against Florida. During that stretch, they did not post a game score higher than 70 and 4 of them were below 55. They are definitely vulnerable on the ground and if South Carolina can take advantage of that then they should manage to keep things close.