BEST BETS: WEEK 13

Finnelytics
Nov 20, 2020
4 min read

YTD: 17-16 (52%) All-Time 39-24 (62%)

PITTSBURGH (+3.5) | vs VIRGINIA TECH

Although Pittsburgh has not treated Finnelytics too well this year, this matchup should be pretty favorable for them. Even though Pitt's season has not lived up to the initial hype, their run defense definitely has. They rank 2nd in the nation per Finnelytics and on average hold their opponents to 84 yards below their season average, which also ranks 2nd in the nation. Their 2.2 YPA mark is the best in the nation and is just flat out remarkable. This game features what has to be the best matchup of the slate, as Virginia Tech comes in with a rushing unit that ranks 5th nationally. The Hokies have managed to outgain their opponent's averages by nearly 100 yards, which ranks 4th in the nation. If Pitt can manage to slow down the Hokie rushing attack it would be huge, as Virginia Tech has not really threatened anyone through the air so far this year.

Offensively, Pittsburgh has not had a good year. Their rushing attack is non-existent. Their Finnelytics Rushing Game Score of just 43 ranks 64th out of 65 Power5 teams (Mississippi State is 65th if they even count). The Panthers passing attack will have to be effective in order to stay competitive, which is why holding down the Hokie rushing attack is the most pivotal part of this matchup.

AUBURN (-10.5) | vs TENNESSEE

Tennessee has become such a one-dimensional team that is tough to not bet against. They have faced a rough stretch of defenses in the past month (Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky) but that still does not help the fact that the quarterback position is still a huge issue. Over the last 4 games, they have failed to cover by an average of 16 points. In those 4 games, the Vols offense, in particular, fell shy of vegas expectation by 8 points on average. The only game where they outscored their vegas projection was against Georgia, a game that included a defensive score for the Vols to start off the game. Overall, the phenomenal offensive line for Tennessee can only do so much. Defenses have been able to stack the box and succeed for most of the year.

Auburn has had their struggles as well. Their offense has not really taken that next step everyone was expecting in year two of Bo Nix. The run game has benefited from a great boost from freshman Tank Bigsby, but the passing game has been pretty poor all year. Their last 3 games may have been nice confidence and numbers boosters, however, even in those games their performance against opponent averages were lackluster (Avg GMSC: 58).

The recipe for an Auburn cover will come down to their defense. If they manage to keep the Vols below 20 it would tough to see them fail to cover.

OKLAHOMA (-7.5) vs OKLAHOMA STATE

Even though this line has pushed it's way up over a touchdown, the Sooners may still be the best play. Don't look now but the Sooners offense has been chugging along just like normal years recently. They have averaged over 50 points a game over their past 4 games, including two straight 62 point outbursts the last 2 weeks. Not expecting to see that many points this week against a much tougher Cowboy's defense, but the confidence must be the highest it has been all year. The added boost of Stevenson at running back and now Jadon Haslewood is working his way back to full strength should give this offense even more firepower. Just like Pitt/VT, this game includes a matchup of top5 units. OU is coming in with the 5th ranked passing offense and they will face the #1 Pass D in the nation per Finnelytics ratings. End of the day, as long as OU can manage to find the upper 30's they should okay. Should be a great matchup to watch.

The most intriguing part of the 2020 version of Oklahoma is their rush defense. They enter this week ranked 11th against the run and have managed to hold opponents to under 100 yards and 51 yards below their PPG averages which ranks 14th. There is a solid chance Spencer Sanders will need to exploit the Sooners through the air in order to keep up with Oklahoma's offense. The Sooner's pass defense has been pretty poor like normal so it can be done, however, taking Chubba Hubbard out of the gameplan could be huge for an Oklahoma cover.