BEST BETS: WEEK 12

Finnelytics
Nov 13, 2020
4 min read

YTD: 15-15 (50%) All-Time 37-23 (62%)

UTAH (-2.5) | vs UCLA

This is a very intriguing game because it will be nice to see how Utah reloads from its Pac12 championship appearance from a year ago. The Utes lost a considerable amount from a year ago, especially on defense. However, this has been a program that has reloaded well and has consistently run out a very solid defense and really a solid, well-rounded team.

Offensively, the Utes have some huge holes to fill as well, primarily their QB and RB. Both Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss are gone and they accounted for the majority of their production over the past few years. The preseason depth chart shows a 3-way race at QB between Drew Lisk, Jake Bentley, and Cameron Rising. Most signs point to the South Carolina transfer, Jake Bentley, to be the one who trots out there to open the game. Bentley performed well during his time in the SEC and will be an upgrade in the passing game compared to Huntley, however, it would be tough to match what Huntley added on the ground. Zack Moss was a very productive running back at Utah and is now playing for the Bills on Sundays. Luckily, running back production is easier to replace than many positions so this shouldn't be too much of a worry. The Utes return 3 PAC12 Honorable Mention members along the line at center and both bookends which will help tremendously.

At the same time, UCLA did not impress one bit defensively last week. The Bruins continued what they were doing in 2019 as they gave up over 500 yards and 48 points in a losing effort to Colorado. The Utes should be fine offensively, the bigger question marks will come on the defensive side of the field.

Hopefully, the veteran-heavy defensive line can lead the way for the Utes. The entire starting defensive line has been in the program for at least 4 years and they are lead by PAC12 HM Mika Tafua at DE. However, the secondary is full of inexperienced, yet talented, youth. That unit will be the most interesting part of the game and if they can manage to perform well then the 2.5 points may be a HUGE misread by vegas.

NEVADA (-16.5) | vs NEW MEXICO

Normally do not stray away from the Power5 in the Best Bets section, however, this game is very intriguing (plus the huge amount of cancelations this week made it tough).

The Nevada passing game has been lighting up their opponents so far this year to a tune of +208 yards vs Opponent Average, which ranks 2nd amongst all CFB teams. The passing attack is lead by QB, Carson Strong, who was named to the preseason Maxwell Award Watch List.

New Mexico has only played one game so far in 2020, and it did not go well. San Jose State absolutely lit them up through the air last week. New Mexico gave up 481 yards through the air en route to a Finnelytics Passing Game Score of just 14.

MIAMI (+2.5) vs VIRGINIA TECH

Even though the Clemson loss did not really help Miami's playoff chances given the possible tie-breaker scenarios, the Canes should have no problem getting up for this game against the Hokies and the +2.5 may just add fuel to fire.

D'Eriq King is coming off the best game of his Miami career as the Miami offense racked up 44 points against the Wolfpack last week. The Virginia Tech defense has not really impressed so far this year, so the Cane's should have no problem on offense.

However, there is a solid chance this becomes a high scoring affair. Hopefully, last week's game against NC State was a little bit of a look-ahead game because the defense was pretty poor. This week's tilt with VT is by far the largest game for Miami since Clemson and should be favored until they match up against the Tar Heels to finish the year. Virginia Tech's rushing attack has been unstoppable so far this year and should definitely be taken into consideration, however, the Hokies can be very one-dimensional and Miami may have enough talent to limit the run game enough while challenging Hendon Hooker to beat them deep.

Overall, the line is really just shocking based on where Miami is in the ACC standings and how much they have to play for. It would be shocking to see them come out and play unprepared and overmatched against the Hokies this weekend.

Also worth noting that Khalil Herbert is still questionable for this week's game. Finnelyics prediction is based on Raheem Blackshear starting at RB for the Hokies, however, a replacement at runningback is nowhere near as influential as other positions.

NOTRE DAME (-13.5) vs BOSTON COLLEGE

This is by far the most popular upset pick of the week. Red Bandana, ND let down game, Phil Jurkovec revenge game. The narrative street is in full force and if it happens it happens.... unfortunately the numbers and how these teams have been playing just scream blowout.

Notre Dame was very impressive last week in their upset win against #1 Clemson, particularly on offense. Their offensive line was basically flawless. Ian Book had all the time in the world to throw and Kyren Williams found paydirt 3 times which is rarified air against Clemson. The Notre Dame offense has been clicking on all cylinders the past few weeks and with playoff hopes on the line, it would be tough to see them not perform well against BC.

The most important part of this matchup is probably when the Irish are on defense. Their defense is easily the best unit of the team and even though Clemson tore them up through the air I would imagine BC can not do the same. The Eagles are a completely different team from years past, as they have turned into a pass-heavy team. Unfortunately, other than the 1st half against Clemson, the pass offense just has not been efficient so far this year.