BEST BETS: WEEK 11

Finnelytics
Nov 6, 2020
4 min read

YTD: 12-13 (48%) All-Time 34-21 (62%)

MICHIGAN STATE (+6.5) | vs IOWA

Michigan State has been a very interesting team so far in 2020. Week one was a disaster against Rutgers, a game that included 7 Spartan turnovers. However, Michigan State rebounded with a huge upset win over Michigan. The Spartans offense, particularly through the air, has been a solid surprise and will be put to the test against an always stingy Iowa defense. Overall, one could easily be persuaded out of the first 2 matchups for the Spartans that the Rutgers game was more of the fluke. They outplayed Rutgers just like they outplayed Michigan last week, it is just impossible to overcome 7 turnovers, including 5 fumbles which is incredibly unlikely to happen again.

Iowa is coming into this game 0-2 and have looked pretty bad in those losses. Last week against Northwestern the Hawkeyes cashed in on early Wildcat mistakes to take an early 17-0 lead in the 1st half. Their touchdown drives were a combined 52 yards including a 7-yard drive for their first TD after NW fumbled a punt. The second half consisted of 3 punts and 4 turnovers for the Hawkeyes and they did not even take a snap in Northwestern territory.

Spencer Petras just has not been the answer early on for Iowa. Their defense is still solid as always, but with the new and improved Spartan offense, this should be a close game, if not outright Michigan State win.

FLORIDA (+3.5) | vs GEORGIA

The story heading into this classic rivalry is for sure the Georgia injuries. There has not been much released concerning the availability of the many banged up Georgia players, however, the one key loss for sure will be Richard Lecounte. The All-American safety will miss a least a couple of weeks after he was involved in a motorcycle crash last week. His fellow safety, Lewis Cine, was also banged up during last week's game which could leave them with 2 backup safeties against the heavy pass attack of the Gators. Their defensive line will also have huge question marks going into tomorrow if both interior lineman, Jordan Davis and Julian Rochester can not go again. Offensively, the main question mark will be George Pickens. As of Thursday, he will be a game-time decision and it is basically a pain threshold decision. Georgia really struggled without Pickens last week against Kentucky. The offense had no explosiveness and only managed to put up 14 points, luckily Kentucky's offense is worse, not the case this week.

The Gators offense continues to cruise this year even after a 2-week layoff due to covid. This will be their toughest test of the year even with Georgia missing players. Previously, Texas A&M was the toughest defense the Gators have faced, and even though they lost they still played well offensively putting up 38 points.

For Georgia, this matchup does feel similar to the Alabama game earlier this year. The Tide are the only high-level offense Georgia has seen so far and while the Dawgs hung in early, they ended up losing by 17 and surrendered 41 points. This is another game where Georgia will probably need to find ways offensively to keep up, a typical low twenties type scoring output will probably not be enough for the Dawgs.

BOSTON COLLEGE (-13.5) vs SYRACUSE

Many may be concerned about Boston College being in a letdown spot here, but at the end of the day, the players should be feeling great about the way they played Clemson last week. It could have just as easily boosted their confidence even though they could not finish the Tigers off. Conversely, you have Syracuse. The Orange lost another key player to a midseason opt-out after Trill Williams announced his decision earlier this week. This leaves them without both starting safeties, which should have the, now high flying, Eagles ready to strike.

It is a pretty hefty line for a team like Boston College, but with the struggles, Syracuse has had offensively combined with the lack of their key players on defense the line does make sense. Syracuse will also be experimenting at the QB position supposedly as Rex Culpepper has been splitting reps this week.

OVER (63.5) vs KANSAS vs OKLAHOMA

The Oklahoma State loss last week may have given Oklahoma an extra boost as they still have plenty to play for. The offense is coming off 3 solid games, all with game scores of at least 78 per Finnelytics. There is no better way to announce that you are still Oklahoma then dropping 60 on Kansas. With two losses already on the schedule, one could imagine Oklahoma will out for style points as well. If Kansas manages to find the endzone a couple of times then this over should cruise.

OREGON (-8.5) vs STANFORD

The PAC-12 is back! A new era for Oregon begins after Justin Herbert moved on to the NFL, however, their defense should still be elite. Even with the opt-outs in the secondary, there is still plenty of talent back there and this Stanford offense should not be anything to be scared of after their lackluster year in 2019.

In steps Tyler Shough. A highly touted recruit himself, once the #6 Prostyle QB according to 247sports, has performed just fine in his limited time last year. The run game will still be the primary focus for the Ducks lead by CJ Verdell. However, Penei Sewell opting-out will hurt that production for sure.

Oregon is not the only team with giant holes to fill due to opt-outs in this game. Stanford will be down their two best players this year in LT Walker Little and CB Paulson Adebo. Those are two huge losses for Stanford and I am just not sure the 8.5 point line is taking those losses into account.