BEST BETS: WEEK 10

Finnelytics
Oct 30, 2020
3 min read

YTD: 10-11 (47%) All-Time 32-19 (63%)

INDIANA (-10.5) | vs RUTGERS

Rutgers started off 2020 with a bang upsetting Michigan St. However, that game included 7 Michigan State turnovers, including 5 fumbles which is something that is highly unlikely to be duplicated. They were outgained by over 100 yards and their average distance of scoring drives was somewhere around 30 yards.

In a somewhat similar fashion, Indiana also pulled out an opening week upset against Penn State. They did not benefit from 7 turnovers like Rutgers, however, they were outplayed and according to many, should have lost the game. Indiana was outgained by over 275 yards against PSU.

Overall, there should be value in this line because of last week's results. Indiana's offense should be plenty capable, assuming they just started off with a tough Penn State defense. Their defense played well last week and will face a much worse offense this week in Rutgers.

WAKE FOREST (-10.5) | vs SYRACUSE

Playing Clemson close into the 3rd quarter last week really may have boosted this line towards Syracuse a bit too far. This is still the same team that lost to Liberty by 17 and lost to a pretty miserable Duke squad by two touchdowns while being outgained by nearly 350 yards. The Syracuse offense has been dreadful. Their Clemson game included a blocked punt to within the 5-yard line and a pick-six resulting in 14 of their 21 points. The last TD coming in a deep bomb to Nykeim Johnson.

The most glaring part of this matchup is Syracuse against the run. Wake Forest is a pretty heavy rushing team and has been very successful this year with the combo of Kenneth Walker and Christian Beal-Smith. Meantime, Syracuse is giving up over 200 yards a game on the ground, off of 5 yards per rush and +60 yards compared to their opponent's averages.

Wake Forest's offense should have their way and avoiding any game-changing turnovers will be the key to covering to 10.5.

NORTH CAROLINA (-6.5) vs VIRGINIA

Other than a sleepy first half two weeks ago against Florida State, the UNC offense has turned things on. Conversely, Virginia has been hampered with QB injury issues and the offense has not looked good at all.

The North Carolina defense should be the determining factor in this game. If they are able to hold limit Virginia offensively to anything under 30 points they should have a very solid chance at covering the 6.5 points.

Defensively, Virginia is pretty solid against the run which does match up well with UNC's offensive attack. UNC comes into the game with 2 runningbacks averaging over 100 yards which I believe is the only team in the nation to boast that. Even if UVA takes away the rushing attack, the Tar Heels actually have better ranks through the air as opposed to their much more talked about rushing attack.

Overall, the UNC offensive attack should just be too much for Virginia to hang around within a touchdown.

NOTRE DAME (-20.5) vs GEORGIA TECH

This could be a potential look-ahead spot for the Irish with Clemson coming into South Bend next week. However, Georgia Tech just does not match up well at all. Their offense has really struggled against above-average defenses so far this year. In week 3 against Florida State, the Jackets did win, however, they managed just 16 points. Back in week 5 when Syracuse had a much better defense than they do now, the Jackets managed just 20 points in a loss. Then week 8 against Clemson they found the endzone just once. Notre Dame's defense may be the best that Georgia Tech will see all year, even better than Clemson. One would have to imagine the Jackets will struggle again offensively this weekend.

Defensively, the Jackets have been dreadful. Notre Dame should have its way offensively combined with their solid defense making the 20.5 points much more reasonable.